CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-11-29T10:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18391/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S25E10. The filament eruption is visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-11-29T08:00Z. It is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sudden but weak Bx-By field component rotation accompanied by weak pileup. Followed by field component rotation indicating a flux rope, beginning 2021-12-04T20:12Z. From Teresa: there are signatures of ICME starting at 12 UT of Dec 4 and flux rope signatures right at 20 UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-04T11:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-02T12:24Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 600.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 657.716 Acceleration: -0.812127 Duration in seconds: 265579.25 Duration in days: 3.0738339 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.81 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 442.0 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 02/12/2021 Time: 12:24 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 99.85 hour(s)
Difference: 47.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-11-30T08:00Z
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